Projection of Urbanization Trend in Calabarzon, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila and Potential Impact on Local Climate

Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Environmental Science


Environmental Science

First Advisor

Gemmalyn M. Trespalacio, MSc.


Calabarzon and Central Luzon regions are seen to be affected by urban growth due to their proximity to Metro Manila. Climate change is considered as one of the most adverse effects caused by urbanization. This study aimed to project the built-up expansion in Calabarzon, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila using satellite images and GIS and to assess the impact of urban expansion on the local climate. The study used Population Density, National Roads, and Economic Zones as the driving forces of urban expansion. In the 2037 projected land cover conversion, provinces of Cavite in Calabarzon with 437.2326 km2 increase; Tarlac in Central Luzon with 107.6355 km2 increase; and Muntinlupa City in Metro Manila with 9.3834 km2 increase will experience the highest built-up expansion. The impact of built-up expansion on the local climate was also investigated using different land cover maps incorporated into the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model: (1) 2017 and (2) 2037 land cover maps. The months of April and September, over a 10-year period (2008–2017), were selected to represent the dry and wet seasons. Differences in temperature at 2m above the surface, surface temperature, sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes, moisture flux, and precipitation were quantified by comparing the two simulations that result in statistically significant changes at the p < 0.05 confidence level. Among the different types of land conversions, vegetation to built-up shows the highest influence on the local climate. The study could be useful to the local government in identifying areas that are prone to built-up expansion and to help the LGU with its disaster risk reduction and mitigation management in the local climate change.

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