How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Dim Coumou, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken
Paola A. Arias, Universidad de Antioquia
Ana Bastos, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ateneo de Manila University
Gabriele C. Hegerl, The University of Edinburgh
Pandora Hope, Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Christopher Jack, University of Cape Town
Friederike Otto, Imperial College London
Fahad Saeed, Climate Analytics
Olivia Serdeczny, Climate Analytics
Theodore G. Shepherd, University of Reading
Robert Vautard, Université Paris-Saclay

Abstract

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community’s role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.